Kocovic predicted yesterday's peak, says another spike is possible, two limitations for predictions

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Serbia yesterday had the highest number of new coronavirus cases since the start of the epidemic. 18,006 people tested positive within 24 hours. This so-called peak matched the forecast of computer science professor Petar Kocovic, who, without yet having data for Monday and Tuesday, came up with two pieces of information in an interview for Telegraf.rs.

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He first predicted that the peak of the fifth wave would happen on Tuesday of this week, and that we will reach the level we were at on December 25, when there were 1,000 new cases per day, in less than a month - on February 10.

Today, having data for Monday and Tuesday, he says that this date has not been moved.

"That date is February 10,  give or take a couple of days. It did not move, regardless of yesterday's 18,000 (new cases)," he told us.

He further commented on yesterday's spike, which was about 2,000 more cases than he predicted.

"The number varies from day to day between 16,000 and 20,000, yesterday it was 18,000," said of the mathematical model based on which he makes his forecasts, adding that there are two limitations in this regard: "I heard a statement by a doctor the other day. They asked him why there were big queues. He said that they were not managing to enter (data on) everyone who came to get tested. That's why there may have been 18,000 yesterday, that may have transferred from the previous two days. The question is also how many more people did not get tested."

Kocovic also said that a drop was registered in the four days before Tuesday, then there was a big jump in the numbers. That means, he explained, that there are about 13,500 cases on average.

"I had information that Monday was the third day of the decline, and due to this increase and the small number of days, from December 26 to January 18, the result I got is that yesterday was the peak day," he told us, adding that 25 days is short period to make precise calculations.

However, he noted that the peak is not necessarily a single day, but a period of "a couple of days around the highest number."

"We're hanging around the peak. Now are the days when the peak is expected, and then a decline. The decline will be slow at first, then after seven or eight days it will accelerate," he said, adding that it is possible that in the coming days of this week there will be more new cases than yesterday.

(Telegraf.rs)