The most critical, 15th day of coronavirus spread in Serbia approaching: What effect will that have?

Illustration: Nikola Jovanovic; Photo: Shutterstock

Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said last night that the coronavirus epidemic in Serbia is expected to become most critica on day 15. Pulmonologist Branimir Nestorovic from the University Children's Clinic in Tirsova St. in Belgrade specifies for Telegraf.rs that the day is this coming Friday, and that this is expected because the number of patients increases in the third week, while in the fourth an epidemic reaches its peak.

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"The 15th day after the first confirmed case is counted. This is because in the third week a sudden increase in the disease begins, while the fourth is the maximum of the epidemic. That is why it's very important for us to have as few confirmed cases as possible. If we have 5, 6 confirmed cases a day, that's not terrible. However, there's the example of Slovenia where in the third week the number of patients doubled in one day. This happened not only in Slovenia, but also in other countries," says Dr. Nestorovic.

Asked whether we can expect such a scenario in Serbia, he recalled that we have a relatively small number of cases - but he also thinks that there had been milder cases in February, even before the first one was confirmed. On March 6, the first person in Serbia was confirmed to have contracted coronavirus. It was a 43-year-old man from Backa Topola.

"Nobody's said it, but I think we've already had a bunch of these milder cases. Because, in the Netherlands, the first case was recorded on February 27 in someone who came from Italy, and they've had about 1,000 patients through yesterday. We had many more people coming from Italy, and we probably had the first cases in February that were not recognized because they were mild. So I think that a lot of people have already circulated the virus in our country and that a large number of people have had the infection. Personally, I don't think that there will be such a large exponential jump in our country, but if it happens it will not be so terrible, if the cases are among young and healthy people," he explained.

According to Nestorovic, young people are usually sick for 7 days, and on the seventh day test negative for the virus and are, as he says, completely fine.

Photo: Tanjug/Dragan Kujundzic

"Those who get sick, on the fifth day either are or aren't fit for a ventilator. You see, 23 patient are already at home, and about ten more will be released today, as far as I know. So out of nearly 60, half are already healthy. So it's not scary, the only thing is to avoid a terrible jump in cases among the elderly who are at risk, no healthcare system in the world can withstand that. That is why the elderly should be careful not to walk around in supermarkets, post offices, pharmacies, and chitchat. I understand that there are those who have nobody to bring them what they need, but they should not stay long in such places," said Nestorovic, adding in the end, fear is more dangerous than the virus.

Epidemiologist Branislav Tiodorovic, an advisor to the director of the Public Health Institute in Nis, tells Telegraf.rs that the distribution of the diseased thickens on day 15.

"While the number of possible fatal outcomes increases," he said.

Photo: Tanjug/Dragan Kujundzic

In Serbia, as of Monday morning COVID-19 has been confirmed in 55 people. Due to coronavirus, a state of emergency was declared in the country the previous night.

(LJ. Racic - lj.racic@telegraf.rs)