Dr. Kon: The 4th wave of epidemic has started, here is when it will peak and how long it will last

We all expected a big surge in September and October, and it already started in July. However, Dr. Kon believes that in the end, it may be for the best

Epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon says that a new wave of the Covid epidemic has already begun, and by analyzing the numbers, he also determined when it will be at its maximum and how long it could last.

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"The claims that we are facing a new surge of the Covid epidemic are based on everything we have learned about it, the time of incubation, the scope of vaccination, which will be difficult to change. You can clearly see what awaits us in the examples of Great Britain and Israel, the reproduction rate clearly shows that the number of infected people is increasing from week to week, it will happen in our country as well, that number will increase relative to our behavior," Dr. Kon told Nova S.

He explained in detail what we can expect in the coming period.

"The more relaxed we behave, the faster the increase (in new cases) will be. So the number of newly infected people will grow faster. In that case, I expect it to peak in six weeks, and overall this wave would last even longer, because it takes time for the curve to flatten," added Dr. Kon.

The situation is not harmless at all, although everyone expected that we would have a calm summer.

"In the next two months, we will have a wave, the only question is how flat it will be, how abruptly the numbers will climb. However, it is clear that we have crossed the threshold, we need to get used to three-digit numbers, I just hope that there won't be four-digit numbers."

There are several reasons why this summer wave has occurred.

"On the one hand, we have a virus that is clearly transmitted much easier, and it is summer time, mass gatherings are becoming more frequent, measures are not being respected as we would like. There is a clearly visible increase that will not stop, but with our behavior we can slow it down."

As Dr. Kon added, he expects discussions at the Crisis HQ "on implementation of controls and supervision."

"I don't expect any new measures this summer. Let me remind you, gatherings of up to 500 people are allowed, and the rest requires the permission of the Crisis HQ. Exit (festival), for example, was approved subject to maximum respect of measures. That could not be banned, there is a huge need for entertainment, music, there is also the economic need. We will have to monitor and see the consequences, every such mass event is a risk, an unacceptable one for those who are not vaccinated, for them it is 30 times higher. And the situation is similar with weddings and other festivities all over Serbia."

The Delta strain has arrived in Serbia, and now there is a lot of talk about the Lambda strain that originated in Peru.

"This new strain dominates in Peru and has spread to 26 countries. Far from it that we should not worry, but it appeared in December 2020 and now it is July and it has not reached Europe, at least its dominance is not visible. The focus is now on the Delta variant. We don't know exactly how many people are infected with which strain, we can only guess based on the samples. It's not possible to examine every patient to find out which strain infected them," said Dr. Kon.

He admitted that he expected a recommendation to vaccinate children aged 12 to 18.

"How the vaccination will be organized depends on the pediatrician. However, I think that there shouldn't a problem at any vaccination point where parents come with a child to get vaccinated."

One of the burning issues is the third dose of the vaccine, and even mixing the doses.

"That is a question for the National Committee for Immunization, they are in charge of that. (Administering) the third dose is certain, that is being thought about non-stop. A combination of multiple vaccines is something that cannot be done without testing. Our people cannot do that without outside research. It must also be decided whether the third dose will be only for the elderly, for certain categories of the population, for those who have been proven to have no antibodies. Or for everyone. That must now be considered," concluded Dr. Predrag Kon.

Dr. Predrag Kon pointed out to a fact that inspires a lot of optimism.

"The good news from Britain is that, although the virus is clearly spreading, and there are 20,000-30,000 new infections a day, hospitals are not filling up, hospitalization numbers are significantly lower than before. It's evident that vaccination has produced results. However, in this case one should be careful because in our country, vaccination is at 38 percent on the entire population, and at 67 percent in Great Britain. That is a significant difference," he warned.

We all expected a big surge in September and October, and it already started in July. However, Dr. Kon believes that in the end, it may be for the best.

"What is happening at the moment may not be so bad. Namely, the virus cannot have such strength now during the summer, high temperatures and sunny intervals, as in the fall. I think that the situation will not worsen in September, since that happened now in July. And the next surge, with the maximum number of new cases can be expected at the end of the fall, in November and December," said the epidemiologist.

(Telegraf.rs)