"Coronavirus should weaken in late May": Dr Kon reveals state of emergency could be lifted earlier

Without incidental situations like the one in Nis, the virus, the number of newly infected people should be declining in the coming weeks, says Kon

Epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon said last night that he expects the coronavirus epidemic to weaken in late May, and noted that the state of emergency could be lifted even earlier.

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"The epidemic goes naturally, by the virus spreading for 6 to 8 weeks and calming down spontaneously. There is a quiet period when it is drawn out. We are now in the second half. When 10 weeks pass, then we are safe. At the end of May it should weaken and that potential should be lesser," Kon has told RTS.

As for the elderly, they will be given the opportunity to relax immediately after Easter.

"Those who are most burdened should be released and relaxed. This applies to those over 65 years of age. They will get time for half an hour walks. Right after the holidays. The most important consideration is related to children and collectives. They are known as the transmission engines and therefore the best moment should be chosen. The state of emergency can be removed and remain within the scope of declaring an emergency measure," he explained.

"The state of emergency can be removed earlier, so with regard to the engagement of the army and the police, that can be abolished, but the measures already defined within the epidemic, the ban on gatherings and so on would remain," Kon said.

He pointed out that medical workers have managed to do what had been planned.

"We managed to do what we planned, we are at the maximum that we experienced in the sixth, not in the fifth week. Although the numbers are large, this is something that could have been expected. Without incidental situation such as the one in Nis, it the coming weeks the decline of the virus should be seen, of the number of new patients, but the testing is ever increasing, so it seems that the number of patients is higher. But it isn't, that's how we detect reservoirs of contagion," said Kon.

"Now are noticing that it is not evenly distributed in Serbia. In some places, the epidemic is extinguished, in Vojvodina and Belgrade it is seriously decreasing, but it has increased in the vicinity of Nis, that is, Paracin, Cuprija, Leskovac. Overall, it is starting to wane. It's too early to speak now. This situation in Nis at the Geronotological Center worsened the results. Apart from that, the situation is as expected," he added.

Kon pointed out that visits to nursing homes were prohibited "fairly early on."

"That came into force before the state of emergency. Only with the introduction of the state of emergency did it become mandatory. If this is not respected then the entry of this virus cannot be prevented. Now, even those who are employed must be together with the residents during the most serious period. One who doesn't have severe problems, if they wear protective gear, the chance of infecting someone is lesser."

"There was initially very little equipment in the gerontology centers. But it's lucky that we didn't have this kind of virus activity at the very beginning, it gradually came in. We were testing the contacts, then a state of emergency was introduced on March 16, then the police got involved to control self-isolation. All of this has worked, " he said.

The epidemiologist points out that the virus is weakening in Serbia and that although there are many newly infected, they have less severe symptoms.

"The impression is that its virulence is gradually diminishing. Every week we have a new weakening cycle New cases show mild symptoms," he explained.

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(Telegraf.rs)